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Always Struggling With Hard Decisions? This Mathematical Formula Will Help You

Always Struggling With Hard Decisions? This Mathematical Formula Will Help You

Imagine this scenario: you’re a boss with a string of job candidates to choose from. You have to make the final decision on each candidate at the end of each interview. If you make an offer to a candidate, you cannot interview the others; if you don’t make an offer you can never hire that candidate again.

That’s a hard decision to make. With these kinds of constraints, how are you going to maximize your chances of hiring the best candidate?

At what point in the process do you say, “Alright, I’m just going to hire the next candidate that is better than the previous ones?”

This is the “Secretary Problem,” sometimes known as the “Marriage Problem” – and mathematician Martin Gardner solved it in 1960.

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The Solution to the Formula for Making Hard Decisions

Here’s the formula’s solution: after you have interviewed 36.8% of all the candidates, just hire the next candidate that is better than the previous ones.

Essentially, the formula proves that 36.8% is the optimal stopping point. Don’t hire or marry any candidate within the first 36.8% of the group, but after that, simply choose the first one that is better than the first 36.8%.

As a practical example, if you had to interview 50 candidates, starting from the 19th candidate onward, you should hire the next candidate that is better than the first 18 ones.

Note that this doesn’t mean you will always select the absolute best candidate (you may end up with second best if the very best candidate is in the first 36.8%), but this puts the chances of you doing so at 36.8%. Pretty decent odds given the situation, I would say!

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36.8%, by the way, is the value of 1/e, where e is the base of the natural logarithm. You may or may not have recognized that little alphabet from your high school math classes.

For the mathematically-inclined who want to know exactly how the solution was derived, you can read about it here. You can also check out the more reader-friendly Wikipedia page on the Secretary Problem.

How Practical Is the Formula Really?

Like all math problems and formulas, there are always some strict constraints that don’t make it as practical as we would like.

For example, if you were going over a list of job candidates, you could most likely just interview them all and call back the best one after. No need to make a definitive offer at the end of each interview.

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However, since there is always a risk that in the interim the candidate may accept another job offer, it might be wise to follow the 36.8% rule, especially if you know the candidates are in high demand.

Making Hard Romantic Decisions Using the Formula

What about when we try to apply it to the romantic department? Well, since you (probably) can’t date a whole string of people and then go back and select the best one like in the hiring process, the problem now is that you don’t know how many candidates there are in the first place!

How you can you determine 36.8% of a number if you don’t even know what that number is?

Good news, because mathematicians have figured that one out, too, and the answer is still 36.8%! Only now, it’s 36.8% of the total time.

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Here’s how it now works: let’s say you gave yourself a certain period to find a suitable lifelong romantic partner – 5 years for example. After 36.8% of 5 years, which is about 672 days (or 1 year, 10 months, and 3 days), you should just propose to the next romantic partner who was better than the previous ones.

This is known as the unified approach, and was proved in 1984 by German mathematician F. Thomas Bruss. You can read all the mathematical details on how this was derived in his paper here.

Making hard decisions is part and parcel of life; and no mathematical formula will be able to help you with all of them. That said, it is useful to know that in certain scenarios, there is a formula we can use to maximize our chances of obtaining the most favorable outcome.

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Ian Lee

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Last Updated on February 15, 2019

7 Clever Goal Tracker Apps to Make the Most of Your Business in 2019

7 Clever Goal Tracker Apps to Make the Most of Your Business in 2019

There’s nothing more fulfilling than the sense of accomplishment you get by achieving your business goals.

Gone are the days when you used pen and paper to take notes and manage your work day. As millennials are relying heavily on technology to manage almost everything from finances to their personal fitness, goal tracking apps are also becoming increasingly popular.[1]

In this piece, we will shed some light on 7 such goal tracking apps that you can use to streamline your operations.

I have handpicked these apps from a software rating web services site Best Online Reviews. Industry experts review software on these websites and help businesses to find the right solutions to meet their various, unique business requirements.

1. Aha!

    Aha! is a California-based roadmap software provider and offers excellent goal tracking app that lets you define goals and objectives for projects. The app also lets you list out primary tasks and allows you to focus on them.

    Hosted securely on the cloud, the app offers enhanced communication tools for sharing updates through emails with select colleagues or the entire organization.

    Aha! is available on multiple platforms such as the web, Android, iOS, Windows, etc. and starts from $59 per month per user.

    Available for Web

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    2. Asana

      Asana is one of the more popular project management apps available for businesses. It lets you organize all your team’s work, such as setting up and tracking goals, creating tasks, sharing files and notes, etc.

      Asana also allows your team to organize all their tasks and focus on urgent priorities. Moreover, the app offers a delightful user experience that makes task management simple and easy.

      Asana is available on multiple platforms from PCs and Mac to iOS and Android. Multi-channel adaptability makes Asana the perfect choice to track your goals anytime, from anywhere.

      Available for iOS | Android | Web

      3. Basecamp

        Basecamp is an excellent tool to manage all your team’s projects and keep your activities organized. It opens a new thread for every task and that task is visible by the whole team.

        With Basecamp, you can schedule tasks, add to-dos, discuss tasks by adding comments, add files and attachments, and much more.

        The app is available on both mobile and desktop platforms and costs $99 per month. It is available on the web, Android, and iOS platforms and offers excellent multi-channel access.

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        Available for iOS | Android | Web

        4. Forecast

          An efficient tool for successful task management, Forecast is also a popular goal tracking app. Apart from effective milestone tracking, the app also offers convenient status reporting.

          Forecast uses project history to let you know the status of your current work. Moreover, it uses the power of artificial intelligence (AI) to provide high-quality assistance. It is a robust app for small teams to track goals and time.

          Forecast is available for free and comes with Android and iOS app support. The premium version of the app starts from $19 per month per user.

          Available for Web

          5. Wrike

            Wrike is a cloud-based collaboration and project management app that successfully manages projects from start to finish. It lets you create tasks, track work progress and retrieve reports with ease.

            The app also gives real-time work updates and helps team members to understand their work priorities. A custom report builder helps you to generate in-depth reporting.

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            Wrike’s premium version is available from $9.80 per month per user and is available on multiple platforms.

            Available for iOS | Android | Web

            6. Todo.vu

              Todo.vu is a unique platform that delivers enhanced customer relationship management (CRM), task management, time tracking, and billing functionality in a single app.

              According to Capterra, it’s an ideal app for freelancers and consultants, who are looking for tools to improve efficiency and transparency.

              Although the app is free to use with basic features, the premium plan starts from $5 per month per user. The app also comes with calendar sync and task reminder functionality to keep you on track, always.

              Available for Web

              7. Flock

                Looking for a tool to simplify task management? Try out Flock.

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                Flock comes with enhanced goal tracking and additional features like instant messaging.

                Moreover, Flock offers tons of integrations with tools such as Google, MailChimp, Jira, Dropbox, etc. It is a powerful tool that’s packed with robust features such as reminders, notes, polls and to-dos.

                Even though you can use the tool for free, the paid version of Flock is available from $4.50 per month per user.

                Available for iOS | Android | Web

                Conclusion

                Businesses need high-quality project management tools to streamline collaboration and operations. Enhanced goal tracking apps make it easy for your team to improve productivity by keeping its tasks organized.

                But it’s essential that you choose an app that meets your unique business requirements. You can choose from the above-mentioned apps to streamline operations and improve the productivity of your team.

                Featured photo credit: Alvaro Reyes via unsplash.com

                Reference

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