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How to Make Irrational People Rational

How to Make Irrational People Rational

Are windmills machines used to produce wind? The faster windmills are observed to rotate, the more wind is observed to be. Therefore, wind is caused by the rotation of windmills. [1]

This is an example of reverse causality, which happen when we illogically infer causation from correlation. Often times, we mistakenly imply a strong correlation means causation. Let’s look at another example of this mistake. U.S. spending on science, space, and technology correlates with Suicides by hanging, strangulation and suffocation. [2]

    Let’s start by looking at the definition of both correlation and causation.

    Correlation. In statistics, a correlation is a single number describing the degree of relationship between two variables. [3] The key word here is relationship, where a relationship may exist, but not causation.

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    Causation. If A causes B we have direct causation. Meaning, one event is 100% causing something else. For example, if you stand in the rain, this will cause you to get wet.

      Let’s look at another example, one that might initially confuse you (which demonstrates how easy it is to imply correlation equals causation). Does the following imply causation?

      Statement. If you commit a felony, you will go to jail.

      Answer. This does not infer causation, because you might go to jail if you get caught. Even if you get caught, you could still receive probation or a lesser punishment. Essentially, we can’t say for sure that committing a felony will cause you to go to jail. [4]

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      To avoid falling into this trap, peel back the layers.

      We can use a futures research method that will help us focus on an in-depth analysis of our problem. This method is called Causal Layer Analysis (CLA) and allows us to dig into the layers (or dimensions) of a problem. Let’s see how it works. [5]

        There are four layers of CLA

        • Layer #1 – Litany. This is our day-to-day future where solutions to problems are typically short term.
        • Layer #2 – Systemic Causes. Here we focus on the social, economic, and political issues.
        • Layer #3 – Worldview. This is our big picture paradigm.
        • Layer #4 – Myth or Metaphor. Our deep unconscious stories reside in this layer.

        Using CLA will assist us in getting to the root cause of a problem. Go back to our U.S. spending and Suicide example. Instead of implying causation, we should dig into the root cause of this issue. This example shows a strong correlation, where r = .99. The closer we are to 1, the stronger the correlation. However, we know this is not logical. So, we must gather more data associated to this problem, identify other potential causes, and identify the true root of the problem.

        Let’s look at some techniques we can use for this.

        1. Fishbone Diagram

        The Fishbone Diagram (otherwise known as an Ishikawa or Cause-and-Effect Diagram) is a way to identify as many possible causes for an effect or problem. [6]

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          2. 5-Why

          Here is a technique you mastered when you were a child, yet you forgot when you became an adult. Simply ask why. The 5-Why technique is a powerful tool allowing us to peel back the layers of symptoms and get to the root of the problem. [7]

            3. Apollo Root Cause Analysis

            This is a way to dig deeper into root cause analysis. Here we look for (at least) two causes in the form of an action and condition, then ask why of each answer and continue to ask why of each cause until there are no more answers. [8]

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              4. Pareto Analysis

              The Pareto analysis is where we use the Pareto principle. Here we find that 20% of our work creates 80% of the results… or 80% of our problem comes from 20% of a certain population. This is a powerful and effective technique for quickly identifying a problem area to focus on.

                Can you now see the error when implying correlation equals causation? Once we understand how errors like this occur, we can use powerful techniques to expose them and find the true root cause to the problem. We are blind when we fail to do this. It’s like trying to look into a forest, but you are blinded by the trees; where you know there is a forest in there somewhere.

                Featured photo credit: Stocksnap via stocksnap.io

                Reference

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                Dr. Jamie Schwandt

                Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt & Red Team Critical Thinker

                Creative Brain Test: 10 Best Ways To Test Your Creative Intelligence How to Be a Maverick and Develop a Maverick Mindset Being Self Aware Is the Key to Success: How to Boost Self Awareness How to Upgrade Your Critical Thinking Skills for a Sharper Mind 10 Brain Training Hacks to Increase Your IQ, Focus and Creativity

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                Last Updated on August 15, 2018

                How to Save a Bunch of Money Easily With This Simple Challenge

                How to Save a Bunch of Money Easily With This Simple Challenge

                Do you find it hard to save money? If so, you’re not alone. A recent survey found that 62% of Americans have under $1000 in savings.[1] This can be disconcerting when we think about the future – buying a house, car, or even much-needed holidays – our desire to be successful in saving money is important to our peace of mind and security. But could there be a simple and easy way to encourage our saving habits?

                Video Summary

                What is the 52-Week Money Challenge?

                A new concept has become increasingly popular that does just that – the 52-week money challenge.

                The idea is to focus on each week, starting small, and gradually building up the amount of money you save. It’s not only consistent, but it takes away the pressure of taking big chunks of income each month which, let’s face it, never feels great. Intrigued? This is how it works.

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                You start by saving just $1 in week 1. The next week it’s $2, the third week it’s $3 and so on. The idea is that by week 52 when you’ve saved $52 in that weekly period, you will have amassed $1,378.

                What Are the Pros and Cons?

                The best thing about this 52-week money challenge is anyone can do it. It’s doable and you can adapt it to your needs.

                For example, you can reverse the process by saving $52 in week 1 and working backwards. This is particularly beneficial for people worried about having to put away $52 during the end of the year holidays.

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                You could even mix the amounts up according to how much or how little you have each week, making smaller contributions when the purse strings are tighter or choose a higher amount when you can afford more. Either way, it’s a solid, simple way to save up a sizeable chunk.

                There are potential cons to this challenge. One is that it can be hard if you’re used to handing over your debit card instead of using cash. But setting up a bank transfer could help here.

                Want to Try the 52-Week Money Challenge? Here’s How to Get Started

                Whether it’s saving for a holiday, putting more towards your mortgage or other monthly or yearly bills, starting this challenge will get you motivated to putting aside those all-important dollars.

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                Write It Out

                Write out (or print out) a list of each week and the amount to save. Having it as a reference will allow you to see your progress. Cross off each week or each amount you’ve managed to achieve.

                Set Up Reminders

                Once you’ve reached a few weeks it can be easy to start forgetting to put your money aside. Make sure you set up a weekly reminder on your phone or desktop to help you keep on top of it. Keep the cash jar in a place where you can see it and will serve as a reminder. Alternatively, set up an automatic bank transfer so you don’t have to think about it at all.

                Make a List of Ways You Can Save

                There are literally hundreds of ways you can save dollars here and there. The first weeks will be easy but as it progresses, finding ways to tuck away $40 or more can get tricky but it’s not impossible.

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                Think of ways to cut back or generate money – these could include:

                • Selling unwanted items
                • Making gifts for people instead of buying
                • Switching off your heating for longer periods
                • Car sharing to save petrol
                • Walking instead of driving
                • Negotiating a better contract for your phone, heating or water supply
                • Switching off unneeded lights
                • Cooking big meals and freezing them for future meals
                • Looking for deals or discounts at your grocery store
                • Choosing shop brands over big brands
                • Making your lunch instead of buying it

                Once you have a list of practical ways you can save, estimate how much money could could potentially save for each one. For example, buying lunch every day could cost $5-10 so ultimately saving you around $30 a week if you made your lunch instead.

                Be Competitive

                Why not turn this challenge into one with your friends or spouse? Having someone there to motivate you will spur you on and keep you on track. Have an incentive going like the person who saves the most money gets to choose the next big vacation.

                Every Little Helps

                The main importance of the 52-week money challenge is that it’s encouraging you to save. If 62% of Americans are not regularly saving then it shows that anything that’s getting you to put a few dollars aside every week is better than not saving at all.

                Remember, it’s the small steps that lead to the big progression. Don’t feel discouraged if you can’t fulfil an amount in a particular week, just know that your willingness to put a strategy in place is good enough. Keep a positive mindset and see how it’ll reflect the money you’ll ultimately save in a year.

                Reference

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