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How to Predict the Future in Life More Accurately

How to Predict the Future in Life More Accurately

Where business is concerned, there is no crystal ball. When you take on a new venture or work to grow an existing one, there are inherent risks. You can run numbers and plan to your heart’s content, but there are so many factors outside of your control. Wouldn’t we all like to have a better way to predict what would happen in the future?

For the business-owner who is trying to decide whether they should expand to a second location or the big-time investor with money tied up in the stock market, being a few steps ahead of the game can make the difference between making bank or losing your shirt. Uncertainty can have devastating impacts. The Great Recession of 2008,[1] in which the bottom fell out of the US housing market, businesses folded, and people were left unemployed, still looms large in our memories when we think about our futures. Performing causal analysis can mitigate some of the risks of doing business by allowing us to anticipate major shifts like the Great Recession.

Take calculated risks and increase our success without losing it all.

The Great Recession had such a powerful impact because many people didn’t see it coming. The warning signs were there in advance of the collapse,[2] but most people didn’t take them seriously until it was too late.

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One of the great challenges in predicting your future is considering all the possible conditions. A business owner who was doing well in 2007 and had projected growth in 2008 had no way of accounting for the effects of broader economic troubles. The business owner who considered many perspectives and anticipated some unknowns undoubtedly fared better than the one who thought he or she could maintain the status quo.

Stop doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

One of the biggest pitfalls in business is thinking that a strategy will continue to be effective. In an ever-changing landscape, you have to be able to adapt you plan and respond to different circumstances. Causal layered analysis is an excellent way to find the best strategies for creating a secure future.

Causal layered analysis works by considering multiple inputs that can effect your outcomes. Some of the factors that must be considered are:[3]

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  • The litany: These are beliefs and feelings that people have about a situation. These beliefs can be based on quantitative data, but they can take on a life of their own. For example, if data projects low sales in this quarter, employees may internalize that belief and respond with fear or helplessness. They may perform poorly regardless of opportunities during the quarter.
  • Social causes: These include historical, political, and economic beliefs that influence outcomes. When a businessperson is deciding whether or not they wish to expand to a second location, they may cite uncertainty over the real estate market after 2008 as a reason not to buy a second property. The dominant political party’s economic policies may also impact how people choose to act in business matters.
  • Discourse: When we think about shaping new policies, who has a seat at the table? Are men and women included in the company’s discussion on parental leave policies? A company that values diverse perspectives will gain new insights. Inclusiveness is powerful.
  • Metaphor and myth: What are the dominant narratives, and how are those impacting outcomes? If we look at this in the context of schools, there is a common misconception that parents in low-income communities don’t care about education for their kids. This couldn’t be farther from the truth. Parents in low income communities are still involved in their children’s education.[4] Misunderstandings in any context can have a negative impact on the way that we operate.

How Causal Layered Analysis helps you to predict the future?

After you’ve asked yourself a question and considered the litany, social causes, discourses, and myths surrounding that question, you can start to process of correcting misconceptions and shaping outcomes.

1. Brainstorm.

One of the best ways to correct misconceptions is to figure out what they are by reengaging stakeholders. When you empower every employee, from the entry level worker to the CEO to engage in a dialogue, you may see incredible results.

One powerful example of this comes from one of the most ubiquitous companies in the world today: Starbucks. Some baristas and a store manager suggested that the frappuccino would be a top-seller. People at the corporate level vetoed the idea, but a manager suggested that they try to market the product anyway. The frappuccino went on to be a major success for the company.[5] Different perspectives matter!

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2. Rebuild and repair mindsets.

From analyzing discourse and myths, you should know whose voices are being heard and who is controlling the dialogue. If one group is controlling the narrative at the expense of the rest of your staff, the imbalance is going to topple your organization. Perhaps you’ll need to change the office culture. If you are using causal layered analysis in your personal life, you may have to get to the core of why you hold certain beliefs.

3. Brainstorm again.

Use what you have learned to envision a better outcome. Solicit the input of your stakeholders once more in order to refine your solutions. Include multiple perspectives as well as quantitative and qualitative data.

4. Determine the takeaways.

Which ideas are going to take you toward your vision of success? What are the potential weaknesses and fears that you have moving forward?

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5. Lock on to certainty.

There are some things you simply can’t change. Identify those things because you’ll either have to use them to your advantage or work around them. Perhaps you aren’t able to find talent to fill positions in your business, and this has always caused problems for you. You’ll either have to find new ways to recruit and train people, or you’ll have to scale your work accordingly.

6. What are the free radicals?

What types of unknowns could affect your outcomes? Could you build more fail-safes into your plan to account for potential problems?

You can perform Causal Layered Analysis on almost anything

This form of causal analysis is most often applied in the world of business, but it can be useful in other forms of future planning and problem solving–from climate change to terrorism futures.[6] Whether you are deciding to buy a house or take a new job, you may find that thinking about your questions through the lens of Casual Layered Analysis can help you unpack the complexities of a problem. As we learned from Dubner and Levitt’s Freakonomics, we often come to the wrong conclusions because we do not understand the difference between correlation and causation, and we ask the wrong questions.

Causal analysis can help us ask the right questions and come up with solutions that reflect a multitude of considerations. We may not have a crystal ball, but we can have a multi-faceted approach to anticipating future events.

You can learn more from Sohail Inayatullah about Causal Layered Analysis here:

Reference

[1] Forbes: What Really Caused the Great Recession
[2] The Telegraph: Federal Reserve missed financial crisis warning signs in 2007, documents show
[3] Shaping Tomorrow: Making better decisions today: Causal Layered Analysis
[4] Center for Public Education: Back to school: How parent involvement affects student achievement
[5] Business News Daily: If you listen up, your employees will step up
[6] Dr. Sohail Inayatullah: Causal Layered Analysis

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Angelina Phebus

Writer, Yoga Instructor (RYT 200)

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Last Updated on January 24, 2020

10 Good Habits To Have in Life To Be More Successful

10 Good Habits To Have in Life To Be More Successful

Habits are behaviors and patterns that you showcase by default. They enable you to carry out crucial activities like taking a shower, brushing your teeth, getting prepared for work.

Interestingly, you follow this routine every day without considering them. Your unconscious habits create room for your brain to perform more advanced activities like problem-solving and choosing what book to read.

Everyone has habits, and several of those habits are activated every day. I would classify them into three groups:

  • The first category includes the habits that you hardly notice as they have become a major part of your life- such as brushing teeth or wearing clothes.
  • The second category comprises good habits to have to be more successful-like eating healthily, exercising your body and reading books.
  • The last group consists of those habits that are harmful-like procrastinating, smoking or overeating.

Habits are fundamental to becoming successful in life — or probably ending up a failure. Yet, as significant as habits are, some lack the knowledge of their capabilities.

Habits are default activities that you engage in without giving an afterthought. They are automatic behavioral or mental activities. They help you carry out some actions without exerting too much energy. They simplify your life.

Several people aspire to break bad habits. For instance, some people diet to stop overeating. They exercise to reduce obesity. Habits can hinder or impact your performance and productivity.

That’s why I would share 10 good habits to have to be more successful in life.

1. Begin Your Day with Meditation

I recommend mindful meditation early in the morning. This practice helps you to be in the present moment. Consequently, it enables you to be mindful of challenging situations during the day.

Different stressors may trigger as you go through the day; meditation helps you to remain calm before taking on the challenges.

Personally, it helps me to devise strategies and think about ideas. Meditation is a good habit to have if you want to be connected to what’s significant in your life.

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2. Be Grateful for What You Have

Sometimes, you waste time thinking of what’s not enough. You become immersed in those daunting challenges. However, challenges justify the presence of hope. When you have life, you have expectations. You will be free from challenges when you are six feet under. The only strategy you have to stop focusing on your problems is to focus on what you have.

Gratitude is a time-tested pathway to success, health, and happiness. It redirects your focus to what you have from what you lack. Here’s what James Clear does every day,[1]

“I say one thing I’m grateful for each day when I sit down to eat dinner.”

3. Smile

Can you pause and smile before you continue reading this?

Now here is what just happened based on research conducted by the Association for Psychological Science; you set a pace for living a happier life when you smile. A genuine smile or what’s called a Duchenne smile is a good habit to have if you want to find spiritual, emotional and mental peace of mind.[2]

Smiling induces the release of molecules that function towards fighting stress. The physiological state of your body determines the state of your mind. When you slouch or frown, your mind takes cues relating to unhappiness and depression. But, once you adjust yourself by putting up a smile, you begin to feel a new level of excitement and vibrancy.

Can you smile again?

4. Start Your Day with a Healthy Breakfast

Starting your day with a healthy breakfast is a good habit to have and forms a crucial part of your life. Nevertheless, about 31 million Americans skip their breakfast each day.[3]

If you are fed up hearing that breakfast is a crucial component of your day, you are only fighting the truth. If you want to become more successful, you need to ‘break your fast’ with healthy foods every morning.

This habit is not difficult to form if you usually rush out the door every single morning. You can wake up earlier to fix yourself a meal so you don’t break down during the day.

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Get inspired by these 20 Healthy Breakfast Choices That Will Save You Time.

5. Exercise Daily

One of the good habits to have is to exercise your body and muscles every day. You don’t have to run a marathon or lift a weight. You only need to engage in less strenuous activities that oxygenate your blood and inject endorphins in your body.

Jack Dorsey, the CEO of Twitter, classified exercise as a good habit to maximize his already jam-packed schedule.[4] He said,

‘I wake up by 5, meditate for 30 minutes, seven-minute workout times three, make coffee, and check-in.’

He said on Product Hunt that he follows this routine every day as it gives him a steady-state that empowers him to be more productive.

6. Manage Your Time as You Manage Your Finance

Another good habit is the act of managing your time effectively. This goes a long way to impact your achievement.

Time management is what separates the successful from the rest of the world as we all possess the same amount of time. How you leverage time determines your potential to succeed in life.

So how do you manage your time effectively?

Here’s Jack Dorsey’s recommendation in one of the Techonomy events;

“I accomplish effective time management by theming my days and practicing self-discipline. These themes help me handle distractions and interactions. If a request or task does not align with the theme for that day, I don’t do it. This sets a cadence for everyone in the company to deliver and evaluate their progress”.

And this is Dorsey’s weekly theme:[5]

  • Monday – Management
  • Tuesdays – Product
  • Wednesday – Marketing and growth
  • Thursdays – Developers and partnerships
  • Fridays – Culture and recruiting
  • Saturdays – Taking off
  • Sundays – Reflection, feedback, strategy, and preparing for Monday

No wonder he was able to run two companies when others were struggling with one job.

7. Set Daily Goals with Intentions

Everyone has goals. It may relate to business or personal life. The truth is, we’re all tending towards a particular direction or another. Nevertheless, while long-term goals can offer you direction, it’s your daily goals that you establish that help you develop short-term goals that are essential for your success.

Long-term goals may not give you the motivation you need to keep on. But when you implement your short-term milestones daily, you become fired up, and you can overcome the challenges that come with taking on bigger tasks.

Here’s the main truth:Successful people don’t set goals without establishing their intentions. According to Jennifer Cohen of Forbes,[6]

“What helps you to achieve your desired expectation is ensuring intentions accompany your daily goals.”

Be intentional about your daily goals!

8. Seek Inspiration

It is usually difficult to be inspired for a considerable length of time. Sometimes, you become discouraged and feel like giving up on your goals when things are not working out as intended.

A practical approach to stay on top of the situation is to inspire yourself each day. When you wake up in the morning after meditation, watch some motivational videos, and let the story of great leaders inspire you.

Establish what Anthony Robbins called the ‘hour of power.’ Determine how many minutes you spend but make it count. Inspiration is the fuel for achievement because when you can conceive it in your mind, you can accomplish it.

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Michal Solowow, an investor and the founder of Mitex, a construction company puts it this way,[7]

“The problems I encounter in everyday life motivates me to find solutions. This is a self-propelling mechanism. becoming a billionaire was never a motivating factor.”

9. Save Steadily, Invest with All Prudence

I can exhaust the good habits to have without talking about saving and investing. Most times, you overlook the significance of saving for the future when you are living in your present moment. According to CNBC, a $1000 emergency will propel several Americans into debt.[8]

However, it is not enough to save, and you must invest your fund and be wise with it. If you pay attention to this now, you will set yourself for a life of success in the future. Ensure you save at least six months in your emergency account so you can be prepared for any future emergency.

10. Budget and Track Your Spendings

Benjamin Franklin warned of taking the precaution of little expenses. He said,

“A small leak sinks a great ship.”

It is easy to discard little expenses, but the truth is they always add up. This happens when you fail to budget.

Budgeting is a good habit to have, which can impact your financial life significantly. The money you spend on extravagant lifestyles can be saved and invested in your future.

The Bottom Line

Endeavor to cultivate these good habits to have to become more successful as you journey through life. The quicker you cultivate them, the faster you achieve your goals.

More About Habits

Featured photo credit: Andrijana Bozic via unsplash.com

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Reference

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