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How to Predict the Future in Life More Accurately

How to Predict the Future in Life More Accurately

Where business is concerned, there is no crystal ball. When you take on a new venture or work to grow an existing one, there are inherent risks. You can run numbers and plan to your heart’s content, but there are so many factors outside of your control. Wouldn’t we all like to have a better way to predict what would happen in the future?

For the business-owner who is trying to decide whether they should expand to a second location or the big-time investor with money tied up in the stock market, being a few steps ahead of the game can make the difference between making bank or losing your shirt. Uncertainty can have devastating impacts. The Great Recession of 2008,[1] in which the bottom fell out of the US housing market, businesses folded, and people were left unemployed, still looms large in our memories when we think about our futures. Performing causal analysis can mitigate some of the risks of doing business by allowing us to anticipate major shifts like the Great Recession.

Take calculated risks and increase our success without losing it all.

The Great Recession had such a powerful impact because many people didn’t see it coming. The warning signs were there in advance of the collapse,[2] but most people didn’t take them seriously until it was too late.

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One of the great challenges in predicting your future is considering all the possible conditions. A business owner who was doing well in 2007 and had projected growth in 2008 had no way of accounting for the effects of broader economic troubles. The business owner who considered many perspectives and anticipated some unknowns undoubtedly fared better than the one who thought he or she could maintain the status quo.

Stop doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

One of the biggest pitfalls in business is thinking that a strategy will continue to be effective. In an ever-changing landscape, you have to be able to adapt you plan and respond to different circumstances. Causal layered analysis is an excellent way to find the best strategies for creating a secure future.

Causal layered analysis works by considering multiple inputs that can effect your outcomes. Some of the factors that must be considered are:[3]

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  • The litany: These are beliefs and feelings that people have about a situation. These beliefs can be based on quantitative data, but they can take on a life of their own. For example, if data projects low sales in this quarter, employees may internalize that belief and respond with fear or helplessness. They may perform poorly regardless of opportunities during the quarter.
  • Social causes: These include historical, political, and economic beliefs that influence outcomes. When a businessperson is deciding whether or not they wish to expand to a second location, they may cite uncertainty over the real estate market after 2008 as a reason not to buy a second property. The dominant political party’s economic policies may also impact how people choose to act in business matters.
  • Discourse: When we think about shaping new policies, who has a seat at the table? Are men and women included in the company’s discussion on parental leave policies? A company that values diverse perspectives will gain new insights. Inclusiveness is powerful.
  • Metaphor and myth: What are the dominant narratives, and how are those impacting outcomes? If we look at this in the context of schools, there is a common misconception that parents in low-income communities don’t care about education for their kids. This couldn’t be farther from the truth. Parents in low income communities are still involved in their children’s education.[4] Misunderstandings in any context can have a negative impact on the way that we operate.

How Causal Layered Analysis helps you to predict the future?

After you’ve asked yourself a question and considered the litany, social causes, discourses, and myths surrounding that question, you can start to process of correcting misconceptions and shaping outcomes.

1. Brainstorm.

One of the best ways to correct misconceptions is to figure out what they are by reengaging stakeholders. When you empower every employee, from the entry level worker to the CEO to engage in a dialogue, you may see incredible results.

One powerful example of this comes from one of the most ubiquitous companies in the world today: Starbucks. Some baristas and a store manager suggested that the frappuccino would be a top-seller. People at the corporate level vetoed the idea, but a manager suggested that they try to market the product anyway. The frappuccino went on to be a major success for the company.[5] Different perspectives matter!

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2. Rebuild and repair mindsets.

From analyzing discourse and myths, you should know whose voices are being heard and who is controlling the dialogue. If one group is controlling the narrative at the expense of the rest of your staff, the imbalance is going to topple your organization. Perhaps you’ll need to change the office culture. If you are using causal layered analysis in your personal life, you may have to get to the core of why you hold certain beliefs.

3. Brainstorm again.

Use what you have learned to envision a better outcome. Solicit the input of your stakeholders once more in order to refine your solutions. Include multiple perspectives as well as quantitative and qualitative data.

4. Determine the takeaways.

Which ideas are going to take you toward your vision of success? What are the potential weaknesses and fears that you have moving forward?

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5. Lock on to certainty.

There are some things you simply can’t change. Identify those things because you’ll either have to use them to your advantage or work around them. Perhaps you aren’t able to find talent to fill positions in your business, and this has always caused problems for you. You’ll either have to find new ways to recruit and train people, or you’ll have to scale your work accordingly.

6. What are the free radicals?

What types of unknowns could affect your outcomes? Could you build more fail-safes into your plan to account for potential problems?

You can perform Causal Layered Analysis on almost anything

This form of causal analysis is most often applied in the world of business, but it can be useful in other forms of future planning and problem solving–from climate change to terrorism futures.[6] Whether you are deciding to buy a house or take a new job, you may find that thinking about your questions through the lens of Casual Layered Analysis can help you unpack the complexities of a problem. As we learned from Dubner and Levitt’s Freakonomics, we often come to the wrong conclusions because we do not understand the difference between correlation and causation, and we ask the wrong questions.

Causal analysis can help us ask the right questions and come up with solutions that reflect a multitude of considerations. We may not have a crystal ball, but we can have a multi-faceted approach to anticipating future events.

You can learn more from Sohail Inayatullah about Causal Layered Analysis here:

Reference

[1] Forbes: What Really Caused the Great Recession
[2] The Telegraph: Federal Reserve missed financial crisis warning signs in 2007, documents show
[3] Shaping Tomorrow: Making better decisions today: Causal Layered Analysis
[4] Center for Public Education: Back to school: How parent involvement affects student achievement
[5] Business News Daily: If you listen up, your employees will step up
[6] Dr. Sohail Inayatullah: Causal Layered Analysis

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Angelina Phebus

Writer, Yoga Instructor (RYT 200)

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Last Updated on September 18, 2020

How to Be More Self-Assured and Get More Done During the Week

How to Be More Self-Assured and Get More Done During the Week

Time is a great leveler isn’t it? We all have the same 24 hours in a day. Even if you’re self-assured, the day may never feel quite long enough.

Why is it that some people can be so much more productive and achieve so much more in a typical day, while others struggle to achieve anything apart from feeling time crunched and overwhelmed?

Everyone I know and work with wants to make the best use of their time. They want to learn how to be more self-assured, happier, and work less—all while growing in their career.

How effectively we use our time—and how we actually work in our business—can make a huge difference to the amount we accomplish in a day or week. It can also make us more focused and more confident.

Do you want to have more thinking and creative time? Do you want to spend more time working on your business rather than working at or in your business? In this article, we’ll show you how.

Get More Done by Gaining Confidence

What if you had a strategy for making the best use of your time that brings you more joy and allows you to focus on the biggest activities and opportunities in your business? You may find the following outline below to be helpful:

1. Create an Exciting Vision

If you don’t know where you’re going, how do you know when you get there?

You want to be more productive and spend more time getting the right stuff done. Well, you need to create a compelling and exciting vision of your future.

What does this future look like? How will you feel when you get there?

Creating a new vision, especially one that is a lot bigger than where you are right now, has a way of igniting your passion. It may be something that feels hard to achieve, but every step you take towards that bigger vision will certainly build your confidence.

Create a vision board to feel more self-assured.

    Commitment to this vision, and accomplishing continual daily progress depends on your ability to look at any situation you’re faced with or currently in, feel self-assured, and see something bigger ahead.

    Also, when you know where you’re headed, you will instinctively start to see all the new opportunities and connections that will get you there.

    Make a vision map to get you started on the path to better productivity. This doesn’t have to be fully actualized, but you should know at least what direction you are heading.

    2. Build a Strategic Plan

    Once you have your future vision mapped out, the next step is to build a strategic plan to get you there.

    Your future vision may be for 3 years or 5 years, or you may choose a longer time frame. Any timeframe over 3 years may feel like a long way away.

    You may wonder how you are ever going to feel confident and motivated on this bigger future years from now when you feel as though you have so much to accomplish today.

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    The first step is to decide on some specific goals for the next 12 months. Don’t list too many or you may begin to feel overwhelmed.

    The magic number for me and my clients is usually five annual goals.

    These are big goals that will create massive change in your business and life and bridge your current situation to your bigger future; accomplishing these goals one by one will help to increase your confidence on a daily basis.

    3. Get on Goal Planning

    Get yourself a piece of blank paper and a pen and divide the paper into 4 columns: A, B, C, and D.

    Ask yourself the question: What is great in my business and life right now? Write these things down in Column A. This might be a couple of things, five things, ten things, whatever feels right to you.

    Then ask yourself: What things are happening right now that I don’t want in my future? Write these things down in Column B.

    This is your opportunity to take a step back and look at the things that are simply not working. You may list people that are bringing you down or projects that you don’t want to work on any more. Maybe you’ll include a service offering that’s going nowhere. It could be the people you’re working with, or it could be your pricing.

    Now, let’s look at your personal strengths. Write down everything that you’re great at in Column C.

    These could be things that you’re doing right now and having success with. It could also be things you know you’re awesome at but you’re not spending enough time on.

    Column D is for your biggest opportunities. Is there a new service/product you could offer your ideal customers? Is there a new innovation you could bring to market? Just take some time out and really think and list these things in Column D.

    Once you’ve analyzed everything you’ve written down, take some time to really think about what goals you want to set for your business and life in the next 12 months.

    4. Set Outcomes to Build Confidence

    You now have your goals, and you’ll feel self-assured and raring to go. They are written down and you’re committed to achieving them. You feel self-assured and motivated.

    But how do you ensure that you stay on the correct course to achieve these goals?

    Managing and juggling day-to-day projects can get in the way. Dealing with problems can get in the way. Staying on top of orders, managing cash flow, and handling day-to-day stuff can move your ship off course.

    You want to be productive and achieve your goals, but you also need to ensure the day and week runs smoothly.

    One way to ensure this happens is to set 90 Day Outcome Goals; within those Outcome Goals, put some specific process goals that need to be undertaken.

    Let’s say you want to get 10 more speaking jobs in the next 90 days, and you know that you typically convert 50% of opportunities.

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    Therefore, your process goal needs to be to have 20 conversations in the next 90 Days to deliver the 10 new pieces of work. You will then work out who you can have those conversations with.

    It’s smart to overshoot, so you will more easily hit your target. This is a clear plan to work through because with every win, your confidence will grow.

    5. Completely Commit to Your Success

    If you are not truly committed to achieving your goals, then chances are that you won’t reach them.

    Motivation can only take you so far. It is the intentional commitment[1] and emotional investment in your future success that will move you forward.

    Think back to any time that you really committed to achieving something. There must have been a reason you actually achieved what you set out to achieve. What motivated you?

    Were you fully invested? Why did it matter? Did you have to be really courageous to achieve it?

    How did it feel when you achieved it? What difference did it make?

    When have you felt truly self-assured? When you are committed to something, then you are propelled into action. Your mindset is focused, and your body follows; you want to get it done.

    And, when you do get it done, your confidence goes through the roof. You feel a level of certainty in achieving the goal you set out to accomplish.

    6. Focus on Your Strengths

    To feel self-assured and build up the confidence needed to achieve our biggest goals, we need to focus on our strengths.

    What are you best at? What are your unique skills? You want to spend as much time as you can working in the areas that you’re great at.

    Multiply your strengths. These areas are where you add the biggest value. They often bring you the biggest amount of joy, and you feel more and more confident when you are using your unique skills.

    If you think there is a specific capability you need to learn or be better at, spend more focused time in that area.

    Many of us want to do it all. We want to be good at everything. We want to offer a lot of services. But, in reality, there are some very specific things we are great at; nobody is good at everything!

    Spending more time adding value in the areas where you excel can create breakthrough results and boost confidence.

    7. Embrace the Present

    Sometimes we spend so much time thinking about the future or worrying about the past that we forget the present moment[2].

    Are you spending most of your day reacting to things, or have you taken the time to think about what your perfect day looks like?

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    We all have the opportunity to create rather than react, to decide what we do with our day. All of our future success can be created in the present moment if we just take a step back and take action.

    Sometimes, doing it now is more important than doing it perfectly. There are hidden opportunities in every moment. We need to make sure we don’t miss them if we want to feel self-assured.

    8. Calm the Whirlwind

    The day-to-day life in business and life can be hard, which leads us to feel less self-assured.

    Your mind may be full to bursting with all of the things you feel you have to do. The phrase “I don’t have time” has almost become an instant reaction by so many people when new opportunities are presented.

    There is a whirlwind happening inside our minds.

    Appointments, notifications, tasks, phone calls, errands, cash flow, staffing issues, networking, marketing all can clutter up our timeline. The sheer volume of things we feel we should do creates procrastination, stopping us from pursuing the projects and people that matter.

    Many of us feel we have to do everything within our business.

    Rather than simplifying things and doing less, we do more. We work longer, which creates a lack of energy and focus. Because of this, we lose clarity on our biggest opportunities. If you feel this way, take some well-deserved time off.

    Look at where you’re spending your time. How much of your time is being spent moving your ideas forward?

    In the next 90 days, if you could delegate or outsource more daily tasks and spend more time focusing on where you add the biggest value, what difference would it make?

    Calm the whirlwind by slowing down and doing less.

    Focus on areas that you add the biggest amount of value. By doing this, your energy levels will increase, your confidence will grow and you will have more success.

    9. Take More Time off

    This may seem counterintuitive, but taking more time off to recharge and refocus can pay huge dividends.

    If you are constantly fighting fires and caught up in the myriad of different activities that you have to do each day, then how can you move your business forward?

    You may be being pulled in difference directions without any focused time on your biggest projects. If that’s the case, then it’s almost impossible to gain any real momentum in moving your business forward and hitting your goals.

    The best way to get off that treadmill is to take more creative time out of the business.

    Could you realistically take one day off per month to work on your business? If you could, what would you do with this time?

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    Just imagine no distractions, only focused time on the strategic development and growth of your business.

    Every day off per month could have a different focus: New product innovation; Thinking about your biggest clients; Improving operations.

    Add to this a quarterly review to check in with your goals progress, and this could have a dramatic effect on where you spend your valuable time.

    10. Celebrate Wins

    Sometimes you just want to get through the day, right?

    You have so much to do. There are so many things on your task list that you just complete what you can and then start another day. But what would happen if, at the end of each day, you took some time out to look at what you’ve accomplished?

    Celebrating success keeps you motivated and helps you become more self-assured. It is not just another day. It’s a day that included things that should be celebrated.

    If you’re struggling to feel motivated, try celebrating a couple of wins each day.

    Celebrating success combined with the gratitude you have for achieving those wins will boost your confidence and inspire you for the next day.

    11. Give Yourself More Space

    When was the last time you gave yourself time to think?

    Within the hustle and bustle, it can be difficult to give yourself a little bit of space and time to just think[3].

    Imagine giving yourself just an hour a day to just let your mind wander or think about a specific thing.

    If you think about it, we can all free up an hour a day for something without really losing any efficiency or really impacting our business.

    In fact, that hour could be transformational for your business and life.

    A new idea for a product could form, or an idea for adding value to your existing clients could materialize. Perhaps you could do a check in to your ideal future and your goals. You could decide that you want to take your business in a new direction.

    Try this: Just sit alone for an hour with a notebook and let it be your creative thinking time. See what happens.

    Final Thoughts

    Ultimately, being self-assured happens when you have a clear direction.

    This, coupled with having clear goals and working in your unique skill-set, gives you the biggest opportunity to be more productive and get more of the right things done.

    The old mantra that “less is more” is right on the money. By giving yourself more time to work on your goals, you will inevitably increase your confidence; at this point, your ideal future can be anything you want it to be.

    More on How to Be Self-Assured

    Featured photo credit: Nathan Dumlao via unsplash.com

    Reference

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