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How to Predict the Future in Life More Accurately

How to Predict the Future in Life More Accurately

Where business is concerned, there is no crystal ball. When you take on a new venture or work to grow an existing one, there are inherent risks. You can run numbers and plan to your heart’s content, but there are so many factors outside of your control. Wouldn’t we all like to have a better way to predict what would happen in the future?

For the business-owner who is trying to decide whether they should expand to a second location or the big-time investor with money tied up in the stock market, being a few steps ahead of the game can make the difference between making bank or losing your shirt. Uncertainty can have devastating impacts. The Great Recession of 2008,[1] in which the bottom fell out of the US housing market, businesses folded, and people were left unemployed, still looms large in our memories when we think about our futures. Performing causal analysis can mitigate some of the risks of doing business by allowing us to anticipate major shifts like the Great Recession.

Take calculated risks and increase our success without losing it all.

The Great Recession had such a powerful impact because many people didn’t see it coming. The warning signs were there in advance of the collapse,[2] but most people didn’t take them seriously until it was too late.

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One of the great challenges in predicting your future is considering all the possible conditions. A business owner who was doing well in 2007 and had projected growth in 2008 had no way of accounting for the effects of broader economic troubles. The business owner who considered many perspectives and anticipated some unknowns undoubtedly fared better than the one who thought he or she could maintain the status quo.

Stop doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

One of the biggest pitfalls in business is thinking that a strategy will continue to be effective. In an ever-changing landscape, you have to be able to adapt you plan and respond to different circumstances. Causal layered analysis is an excellent way to find the best strategies for creating a secure future.

Causal layered analysis works by considering multiple inputs that can effect your outcomes. Some of the factors that must be considered are:[3]

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  • The litany: These are beliefs and feelings that people have about a situation. These beliefs can be based on quantitative data, but they can take on a life of their own. For example, if data projects low sales in this quarter, employees may internalize that belief and respond with fear or helplessness. They may perform poorly regardless of opportunities during the quarter.
  • Social causes: These include historical, political, and economic beliefs that influence outcomes. When a businessperson is deciding whether or not they wish to expand to a second location, they may cite uncertainty over the real estate market after 2008 as a reason not to buy a second property. The dominant political party’s economic policies may also impact how people choose to act in business matters.
  • Discourse: When we think about shaping new policies, who has a seat at the table? Are men and women included in the company’s discussion on parental leave policies? A company that values diverse perspectives will gain new insights. Inclusiveness is powerful.
  • Metaphor and myth: What are the dominant narratives, and how are those impacting outcomes? If we look at this in the context of schools, there is a common misconception that parents in low-income communities don’t care about education for their kids. This couldn’t be farther from the truth. Parents in low income communities are still involved in their children’s education.[4] Misunderstandings in any context can have a negative impact on the way that we operate.

How Causal Layered Analysis helps you to predict the future?

After you’ve asked yourself a question and considered the litany, social causes, discourses, and myths surrounding that question, you can start to process of correcting misconceptions and shaping outcomes.

1. Brainstorm.

One of the best ways to correct misconceptions is to figure out what they are by reengaging stakeholders. When you empower every employee, from the entry level worker to the CEO to engage in a dialogue, you may see incredible results.

One powerful example of this comes from one of the most ubiquitous companies in the world today: Starbucks. Some baristas and a store manager suggested that the frappuccino would be a top-seller. People at the corporate level vetoed the idea, but a manager suggested that they try to market the product anyway. The frappuccino went on to be a major success for the company.[5] Different perspectives matter!

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2. Rebuild and repair mindsets.

From analyzing discourse and myths, you should know whose voices are being heard and who is controlling the dialogue. If one group is controlling the narrative at the expense of the rest of your staff, the imbalance is going to topple your organization. Perhaps you’ll need to change the office culture. If you are using causal layered analysis in your personal life, you may have to get to the core of why you hold certain beliefs.

3. Brainstorm again.

Use what you have learned to envision a better outcome. Solicit the input of your stakeholders once more in order to refine your solutions. Include multiple perspectives as well as quantitative and qualitative data.

4. Determine the takeaways.

Which ideas are going to take you toward your vision of success? What are the potential weaknesses and fears that you have moving forward?

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5. Lock on to certainty.

There are some things you simply can’t change. Identify those things because you’ll either have to use them to your advantage or work around them. Perhaps you aren’t able to find talent to fill positions in your business, and this has always caused problems for you. You’ll either have to find new ways to recruit and train people, or you’ll have to scale your work accordingly.

6. What are the free radicals?

What types of unknowns could affect your outcomes? Could you build more fail-safes into your plan to account for potential problems?

You can perform Causal Layered Analysis on almost anything

This form of causal analysis is most often applied in the world of business, but it can be useful in other forms of future planning and problem solving–from climate change to terrorism futures.[6] Whether you are deciding to buy a house or take a new job, you may find that thinking about your questions through the lens of Casual Layered Analysis can help you unpack the complexities of a problem. As we learned from Dubner and Levitt’s Freakonomics, we often come to the wrong conclusions because we do not understand the difference between correlation and causation, and we ask the wrong questions.

Causal analysis can help us ask the right questions and come up with solutions that reflect a multitude of considerations. We may not have a crystal ball, but we can have a multi-faceted approach to anticipating future events.

You can learn more from Sohail Inayatullah about Causal Layered Analysis here:

Reference

[1]Forbes: What Really Caused the Great Recession
[2]The Telegraph: Federal Reserve missed financial crisis warning signs in 2007, documents show
[3]Shaping Tomorrow: Making better decisions today: Causal Layered Analysis
[4]Center for Public Education: Back to school: How parent involvement affects student achievement
[5]Business News Daily: If you listen up, your employees will step up
[6]Dr. Sohail Inayatullah: Causal Layered Analysis

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Last Updated on December 7, 2018

10 Steps For Success: Applying The Power Of Your Subconscious Mind

10 Steps For Success: Applying The Power Of Your Subconscious Mind

How big is the gap between you and your success?

What is the difference between successful people and unsuccessful people?

It is as simple as this: successful people think and talk about what they are creating, and unsuccessful people focus on and talk about what they’re lacking.

So how do you bridge that gap between wanting success and having your success? Let’s make an important distinction. You see, there is a big difference between “Wanting” and “Having” something.

Wanting: means lacking or absent. Deficient in some part, thing or aspect.

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Having: means to possess, to hold, to get, to receive, to experience.

You can have one OR the other, but not both at the same time with any particular object of your desire. You either have it or you don’t.

When it comes to your subconscious, if you’re focusing on the “wanting”, i.e. the not having, guess what, you will build stronger neural networks in your brain around the “wanting.” However, through the power of your subconscious mind, you can focus on the “having” as if it has already happened. Research has shown that your brain doesn’t know the difference between what you’re visualizing inside your mind versus what is happening out there in your reality.

This is a regular practice of elite athletes. They spend as much timing creating the internal mental imagery of their success playing out as they do actually physically practicing. This helps create both the neural pathways in their brain and the muscle memory to consistently deliver on that success.

Here are 10 “brain hack” steps for success that you can take to create your version of a happy life. Make these steps a regular habit, and you will be astonished at the results.

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Step 1: Decide exactly what you want to create and have

This is usually the biggest problem that people have. They don’t know what they want and then they’re surprised when they don’t get it.

Step 2: Write down your goal clearly in every technicolor detail

A goal that is not written down is merely a wish. When you write it down in full detail, you signal to your subconscious mind that you really want to accomplish this particular goal.

Step 3: Write your goal in simple, present tense words

…that a three year old can understand on a three-by-five index card and carry it with you. Read it each morning after you awake and just before you go to sleep.

Step 4: Backwards planning

See your goal achieved and identify all the steps required that it took to bring it to life. Making a list of all these steps intensifies your desire and deepens your belief that the attainment of the goal is already happening.

Step 5: Resolve to take at least one step every day from one of the items on your list

Do something every day, even if it is just one baby step, that moves you toward your goal so you can maintain your momentum.

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Step 6: Visualize your goal repeatedly

See it in your mind’s eye as though it were already a reality. The more clear and vivid your mental picture of your goal, the faster it will come into your life.

Step 7: Feel the feeling of success as if your goal were realized at this very moment

Feel the emotion of happiness, satisfaction, and pleasure that you would have once you have achieved your goal. Visualize and feel this success for at least 20 seconds at a time.

Step 8: “Fake it till you make it!”

Confidently behave as if your subconscious mind was already bringing your goal into reality. Accept that you are moving toward your goal and it is moving toward you.

Step 9: Relax your mind

Take time to breathe, pray or mediate each day. Disengage the stress response and engage the relaxation response. A quiet state of mind allows your brain to access newly formed neural pathways.

Step 10: Release your goal to your subconscious mind

When you turn your goal over to the power of the universe and just get out of the way, you will always know the right actions to take at the right time.

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Starting today, try tapping into the incredible power of your subconscious mind.Start with just one goal or idea, and practice it continually until you succeed in achieving that goal. Make it a game and have fun with it! The more lightly you hold it, the easier it will be to achieve. By doing so, you will move from the “positive thinking” of the hopeful person to the “positive knowing” of the totally successful person.

Hit reply and let me know what you’re creating!

To your success!

Featured photo credit: use-your-brain-markgraf via mrg.bz

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