Advertising
Advertising

How to Predict the Future in Life More Accurately

How to Predict the Future in Life More Accurately

Where business is concerned, there is no crystal ball. When you take on a new venture or work to grow an existing one, there are inherent risks. You can run numbers and plan to your heart’s content, but there are so many factors outside of your control. Wouldn’t we all like to have a better way to predict what would happen in the future?

For the business-owner who is trying to decide whether they should expand to a second location or the big-time investor with money tied up in the stock market, being a few steps ahead of the game can make the difference between making bank or losing your shirt. Uncertainty can have devastating impacts. The Great Recession of 2008,[1] in which the bottom fell out of the US housing market, businesses folded, and people were left unemployed, still looms large in our memories when we think about our futures. Performing causal analysis can mitigate some of the risks of doing business by allowing us to anticipate major shifts like the Great Recession.

Take calculated risks and increase our success without losing it all.

The Great Recession had such a powerful impact because many people didn’t see it coming. The warning signs were there in advance of the collapse,[2] but most people didn’t take them seriously until it was too late.

Advertising

One of the great challenges in predicting your future is considering all the possible conditions. A business owner who was doing well in 2007 and had projected growth in 2008 had no way of accounting for the effects of broader economic troubles. The business owner who considered many perspectives and anticipated some unknowns undoubtedly fared better than the one who thought he or she could maintain the status quo.

Stop doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

One of the biggest pitfalls in business is thinking that a strategy will continue to be effective. In an ever-changing landscape, you have to be able to adapt you plan and respond to different circumstances. Causal layered analysis is an excellent way to find the best strategies for creating a secure future.

Causal layered analysis works by considering multiple inputs that can effect your outcomes. Some of the factors that must be considered are:[3]

Advertising

  • The litany: These are beliefs and feelings that people have about a situation. These beliefs can be based on quantitative data, but they can take on a life of their own. For example, if data projects low sales in this quarter, employees may internalize that belief and respond with fear or helplessness. They may perform poorly regardless of opportunities during the quarter.
  • Social causes: These include historical, political, and economic beliefs that influence outcomes. When a businessperson is deciding whether or not they wish to expand to a second location, they may cite uncertainty over the real estate market after 2008 as a reason not to buy a second property. The dominant political party’s economic policies may also impact how people choose to act in business matters.
  • Discourse: When we think about shaping new policies, who has a seat at the table? Are men and women included in the company’s discussion on parental leave policies? A company that values diverse perspectives will gain new insights. Inclusiveness is powerful.
  • Metaphor and myth: What are the dominant narratives, and how are those impacting outcomes? If we look at this in the context of schools, there is a common misconception that parents in low-income communities don’t care about education for their kids. This couldn’t be farther from the truth. Parents in low income communities are still involved in their children’s education.[4] Misunderstandings in any context can have a negative impact on the way that we operate.

How Causal Layered Analysis helps you to predict the future?

After you’ve asked yourself a question and considered the litany, social causes, discourses, and myths surrounding that question, you can start to process of correcting misconceptions and shaping outcomes.

1. Brainstorm.

One of the best ways to correct misconceptions is to figure out what they are by reengaging stakeholders. When you empower every employee, from the entry level worker to the CEO to engage in a dialogue, you may see incredible results.

One powerful example of this comes from one of the most ubiquitous companies in the world today: Starbucks. Some baristas and a store manager suggested that the frappuccino would be a top-seller. People at the corporate level vetoed the idea, but a manager suggested that they try to market the product anyway. The frappuccino went on to be a major success for the company.[5] Different perspectives matter!

Advertising

2. Rebuild and repair mindsets.

From analyzing discourse and myths, you should know whose voices are being heard and who is controlling the dialogue. If one group is controlling the narrative at the expense of the rest of your staff, the imbalance is going to topple your organization. Perhaps you’ll need to change the office culture. If you are using causal layered analysis in your personal life, you may have to get to the core of why you hold certain beliefs.

3. Brainstorm again.

Use what you have learned to envision a better outcome. Solicit the input of your stakeholders once more in order to refine your solutions. Include multiple perspectives as well as quantitative and qualitative data.

4. Determine the takeaways.

Which ideas are going to take you toward your vision of success? What are the potential weaknesses and fears that you have moving forward?

Advertising

5. Lock on to certainty.

There are some things you simply can’t change. Identify those things because you’ll either have to use them to your advantage or work around them. Perhaps you aren’t able to find talent to fill positions in your business, and this has always caused problems for you. You’ll either have to find new ways to recruit and train people, or you’ll have to scale your work accordingly.

6. What are the free radicals?

What types of unknowns could affect your outcomes? Could you build more fail-safes into your plan to account for potential problems?

You can perform Causal Layered Analysis on almost anything

This form of causal analysis is most often applied in the world of business, but it can be useful in other forms of future planning and problem solving–from climate change to terrorism futures.[6] Whether you are deciding to buy a house or take a new job, you may find that thinking about your questions through the lens of Casual Layered Analysis can help you unpack the complexities of a problem. As we learned from Dubner and Levitt’s Freakonomics, we often come to the wrong conclusions because we do not understand the difference between correlation and causation, and we ask the wrong questions.

Causal analysis can help us ask the right questions and come up with solutions that reflect a multitude of considerations. We may not have a crystal ball, but we can have a multi-faceted approach to anticipating future events.

You can learn more from Sohail Inayatullah about Causal Layered Analysis here:

Reference

[1] Forbes: What Really Caused the Great Recession
[2] The Telegraph: Federal Reserve missed financial crisis warning signs in 2007, documents show
[3] Shaping Tomorrow: Making better decisions today: Causal Layered Analysis
[4] Center for Public Education: Back to school: How parent involvement affects student achievement
[5] Business News Daily: If you listen up, your employees will step up
[6] Dr. Sohail Inayatullah: Causal Layered Analysis

More by this author

Angelina Phebus

Writer, Yoga Instructor (RYT 200)

Pick Your Job Based On What You Love To Do, Not How Much You Have Invested In. Foods That Can Suppress Appetite And Help With Weight Loss Quality or Quantity? Why Don’t You Sleep On It What it Feels Like To Be The Child of Your Children? How to Become Successful 10 Times Easier: Don’t Focus on Improving Your Faults

Trending in Productivity

1 7 Reasons Why Quitting Facebook Now Is Good for Your Future 2 How to Prioritize Right in 10 Minutes and Work 10X Faster 3 Why You Can’t Focus? 20 Things You Can Do to Fix It 4 16 Good Habits of Happy and Successful People 5 23 Good Habits for a Productive and Stress Free Life

Read Next

Advertising
Advertising
Advertising

Last Updated on December 2, 2020

7 Reasons Why Quitting Facebook Now Is Good for Your Future

7 Reasons Why Quitting Facebook Now Is Good for Your Future

For the past 100 years or so, there have been huge improvements in communication. From letters to phone calls to text messages to video calls to social networks. Following all these improvements, one of the biggest inventions of the 21st century was founded in 2004[1], and it started to spread like wildfire, first in the US and then around the world. Now, quitting Facebook has become nearly unheard of.

There are more than 1 billion monthly active Facebook users. Although initially it aimed to bring all people together for the sake of connecting, the effects of Facebook on masses became a huge debate after it gained so much popularity, with some even suggesting you deactivate your account.

The advantages of social media and its ability to connect us to people around the world are well known. Now, it’s time to dive into the ways Facebook affects your productivity and why you should ultimately consider quitting Facebook.

1. Facebook Allows You to Waste Time

While being on Facebook and scrolling through the news feed, many active users are not aware of the time they actually spend on viewing others’ life events or messaging with Facebook messenger. It has become so addictive that many even feel obliged to like or comment on anything that is shared.

Advertising

You might think of the time spent on Facebook as your free time, though you are not aware that you can spend the same time taking care of yourself, learning something new, or doing your daily tasks.

2. It Can Decrease Motivation

By seeing someone else’s continuous posts about the parties they went to or friends they see frequently, you might feel insecure about yourself if your own posts are not as impressive as the ones in your news feed.

However, there is rarely such a thing as going out every day or having amazing vacations every year. Unfortunately, though, we internalize the posts we see and create a picture in our minds of how others are living.

One study found that “participants who used Facebook most often had poorer trait self-esteem, and this was mediated by greater exposure to upward social comparisons on social media”[2].

Advertising

Basically, when we see posts depicting lives we consider “better” than ours, our self-esteem takes a hit. As many of us are doing this for hours at a time, you can imagine the toll it’s taking on our mental health. Therefore, if you want to raise your self-esteem, quitting Facebook may be a good idea.

3. You Use Energy on People You Don’t Care About

Look at the number of friends you have on Facebook. How many of them are really good friends? How many of the friend requests you get are real people or your actual acquaintances?

You have to admit that you have people on Facebook who are not related to you and some you barely know, but who still comments on their photos or offer a like now and again. Basically, instead of offering your time and energy to the genuinely rewarding relationships in your life, you’re spending it on people you don’t really care about.

4. Facebook Feeds You Useless Information

It is one thing to read newspapers or magazines in order to get information, but it is an entirely different thing to be faced with false news, trends, and celebrity updates through continuous posts. I bet one of the things that you will not miss after quitting Facebook is the bombardment of information that seems to have no effect on your life whatsoever.

Advertising

5. It Damages Your Communication Skills

When is the last time you actually hung out in real life with your friends, relatives, or colleagues? Because of the social media that is supposed to help us communicate, we forget about real communication, and therefore, have difficulties communicating effectively in real life. This negatively affects our relationships at home, work, or in our social circles.

6. You Get Manipulated

One of the biggest problems of Facebook is its influence on people’s creativity. Although it is assumed to be a free social media site, which let’s you to share almost anything you want, you have this tendency to want to get more likes[3].

In order to get more likes, you must work very hard on your shared posts, trying to make it funny, creative, or clever, while you could spend the same time doing something that genuinely improves your creativity. After quitting Facebook, you’ll be amazed at all the creative hobbies you have time to develop.

7. It Takes Over Your Life

The marketing strategy of Facebook is quite clear. Its creators want you to spend as much time as possible on the site. While working on their posts and choosing which pictures to share, many people actually try to be someone else. This often means they end up being isolated from the real world and their true selves.

Advertising

It is possible to put the same time and energy toward becoming a better version of yourself instead of faking it. Why not try it by quitting Facebook?

Final Thoughts

There are many reasons to try quitting Facebook. By knowing how it may be impacting your productivity and mental health, you can search for motivation to get off social media and back into your real life.

These points will guide you in seeing what your life would be like if you were to delete your account. Leaving Facebook doesn’t sound so bad after all, does it?

More on How to Quit Social Media

Featured photo credit: Brett Jordan via unsplash.com

Reference

[1] The Guardian: A brief history of Facebook
[2] Psychology of Popular Media Culture: Social comparison, social media, and self-esteem.
[3] Better by Today: Do Facebook ‘Likes’ Mean You’re Liked?

Read Next